Wednesday, April 10, 2019

Day Trading - Fraud?

There are more than $480 trillion in the global market [Walker, 2008]! Many people try to find their pies to learn day trades; but the connotation of risk and the reported low long-term success rate is a problem. If day trading is really everything it does, is it a scam?

Day trading is the sale of various financial instruments with the goal of profiting from the difference between the buying price and the selling price [Milton, 2008]. Such financial instruments include futures contracts, options, currencies and stocks. It's actually no different. If you buy a home at a reasonable price and sell it to you more than ten years later, the transaction may take only a few seconds, except for the day's trading. Most criticism comes from the fact that day trading is likely to make a lot of money quickly. Many people think this is a plan to get rich quickly; others accept the risk and eventually realize that this presumption seems to be correct. Only a few people learn to win deals and find long-term success. So, what makes these choices different from the main characters who ultimately lose money? The answer is "probability."

You know, those who can learn to win a deal know the market that many people don't understand. This conservative secret is a simple probability rule that successful traders have used skillfully to make a profit. Probability rules simply state that events with possible consequences can produce consistent results if you can get a chance that is good for you and have a large enough sample size.

Let me give an example of how this works. I don't know if you are familiar with uncertain, unpredictable gambling games. People play it because they feel they have a chance to win, although the chances are likely to be small. If gambling is so "unsure", how can casinos be so profitable in uncertain games? Well, the casino has applied probabilistic rules to make it work for them. For example, blackjack is a very unpredictable game; however, the rules of the game give each dollar a 4.5-cent advantage over a desktop house. Because the interests of the house are great, they don't care which hand they won and which hand they lost. Considering all the size winners and losses, if you spend $100 million over the casino's all blackjack tables in a year, the house will earn a net profit of $4.5 million.

Trading is a probabilistic game in law because there are many different variables at a given time that affect a given price, which makes the market essentially impossible to achieve. However, the same probability rules can be applied to daytime transactions, the results of which are similar to those of casinos. Most people don't understand or learn how to make probabilities work for them, which is why so many people end up losing money. The key is to figure out what makes you "advantage" in the market. What can put the probability around you? It may be a pattern in the market movement, indicators, responses to certain types of news, or follow momentum or quantity. Whatever it is, you should test it first. Learn to exchange signals on the simulator and calculate their statistics in a large number of transactions. Once you find the signal that suits you, you can relax because the rest is easy. The trading signal "every time" you see it. You may win, you may lose... but the key is where you end up. If you trade real accounts in the same way that you test signals on the simulator, you will also be profitable because you have found a way to make "odds" work for you.

Learning to win a deal is not as difficult as most people think; perhaps this is the difference between a few successful traders and many unsuccessful traders. Of course, trading is more than just probability, but if you can learn and apply probabilistic rules, you will be on the road to a successful future for day trading.




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